Jan 29th Weekly Recap - $426 loss

Still in the red for the week, but definitely improving.  Though I largely was trading differently this week than I have been so not going to read too much into these results.

45% winners, $180 avg winner, $193 avg loser.  96 contracts trade for a $4 loss per contract.

Friday Wrapup (1/29) - $238 loss

Started the day out with a gap fade off the open.  My first two targets were hit and I moved my stop to just above the then HOD before the 9:55 econ news.  Sure enough I was stopped out 1 tick from the temporary high, and I was frustrated as all get out.  Broke even on this trade.  And then of course the market moved lower immediately after stopping me out, but at least it did ultimately bounce back above my stop loss area.


From this point I hit on just 1 out of my next 5 trades (still using my filters).  In fact the only trade I made money on I nearly got stopped out of before the trade reversed to close with a decent profit. 


The trouble I realized today with my filters is that they get me into the action way too late.  On 99% of the trades I took this week I took a drawdown of at least 2-3 ticks right after entry.  So I originally said to myself, that I'd just enter on a limit order 2-3 ticks above where my filter would normally have me entering.  But then I'd miss 100% of the easy winners, the ones that don't move against you at all.


So near the end of the day, I felt like I had good read on the market action and I decided to re-try my old style.  Entering at the first instance of selling in a short pullback, or buying in a long setup.  This afternoon that meant looking for a NR bar, doji, etc.  Something to indicate a slowing of momentum in the current direction.


Any how with this in mind, I took my last 3 trades of the day after 3PM and went 2 for 3 with a $270 profit.  Still finished the day in the red, but thanks to this solid trading I cut my losses in half. 


Finished the day down $238 on 3 for 8 trading. 


Clearly trading with filters which are always one step behind price action are not the answer for me.  And why did I move away from what's worked for me in the past anyway?  Sure I've had a terrible couple of weeks here to start the year, but the market has changed.  I just haven't adopted to the new rhythm.  But that doesn't mean my methods themselves are flawed.


Next week I need to concentrate on wholesale entries.  Getting in before everyone else.  Because if I continue to follow a MA filter or something similar, I'm late to the party with the other 95% of traders that fail. I just need to watch price action and not get caught up in % retracements, fibonacci, etc.  While these are helpful visual tools, ultimately price pays.

Thursday Wrapup (1/28) - $163 gain

Had some nice early success this morning, but the afternoon session was crap.  But still two profitable days in a row!

Firs trade and easiest trade of the day was a gap fade off the morning gap up.  With just one tick of heat I scaled out into the gap fill for a $325 gain on 3 contracts.  Easy pickings.

Next two trades were short pullbacks, one at 10:43 and the other at 11:17AM.  Nothing fancy on either.  Unlike yesterday I didn't try to let the last contract ride, I scaled out at successive price points as I normally do.  At this point after 3 trades I'm up $800.

My next trade was taken just after 2PM on the first pullback following a push higher.  Never had a chance on this one.  Price blew threw my stop for 2 ticks negative slippage on my exit and I was out for a loss $337 on 3 contracts.  Should've lost $250 had my stop been honored.  Haven't had that much slippage in a while.

My next trade I quickly closed right after entry at breakeven because I realized the trade wasn't part of my current setups.  I had found myself reverting back to my old setups.  In this case, at best I would've broke even, but the reversal off this pullback @ 2:40PM would've been a nice trade.

And finally my last trade came at 3:48PM.  Again price had risen sharply into the Bernanke news, and I bought the pullback on the first push above the prior bar's high.  Two minutes later I was out for a $300 loss.  The trouble with this trade was that sure it was a valid setup, but the trend was clearly broken.  I was blindly following my filters without taking into account the current market structure.  It's as if with these new filters I'm using, I've lost my trader intuition.  I'm just too happy to see a valid signal, and not taking a sec to step back and look at things from a larger perspective.

Find myself wanting to revert back to my old trading style today, but trying to honor the filters I've put in place.  Trouble with filters is that they are always slower than price action itself, which means I'm always going to miss good trades.  But I guess I'll miss some bad ones too!  Anyhow the filters have definitely cut down on my trades placed, which is good and bad.  Whereas I've previously averaged 8 or so trades per day, now I'm down to 3 or 4.  So it's much harder to overcome the negative p/l effects of one bad trade.  Feel like I'm just babbling here, but want to get my thoughts on paper (or the screen that is LOL!).

The positive takeaway from today's trading is that I followed my set rules and filters.  When I didn't, I exited the trade right away. 

Wednesday Wrapup (1/27) - $238 gain

Yes, I back in the green for a change.  Not many trades placed today as they market was fairly choppy overall until the 2:15 FOMC release.

Finished the day 2 for 3 and up $238.  On my first two trades I left way too much profit on the table though.  For some reason I came into today with the mindset that I'd let my profits run, instead of my usual scalping style.  With my first trade I was up as much as $300, but ultimately closed the trade for a $125 gain.  Should've had at least $250 on this one.  And my second trade was even worse.  I gave this trade way too much room to work.  After being up as much as $162, I closed the trade for a $138 loss.  I also stayed in this trade way too long (58 mins) when it was clear I no longer had an edge.

Also, at the start of the week I made it clear I'd only be trading pullbacks this week, but there was a beautiful countertrend setup today around 3:30.  Would've been good for $300 or so on 3 contracts.  Never came close to pulling the trigger, but I certainly thought about it.  At some point I'll re-add this setup to my repertoire, but I'm not quite ready yet.

Tomorrow I need to come in focused on my exit points.  Don't want to leave money on the table again.  Maybe one of these days I'll put it all together again.

Tuesday Wrapup (1/26) - $400 loss

Missed an easy trade last night at 9PM.  Tried to get cute with entry and try to shave 2-3 ticks, but price fell 2 pts in a hurry.  And so tomorrow begins early.

4PM
Finished the day in the red again on 2 for 5 trading.  If it weren't for 2 questionable trades I would've finished the day with a marginal profit.  First mistake was a long pullback taken about 10 minutes before the opening bell, not only was it an ugly setup the trade was opened way too close to the open. Lost $263 as I got stopped out right before the market reversed and headed higher.

Fast forward to 3PM.  Got trigger happy after missing the only decent trade of the day because the entry didn't quite fit into my new filter params.  So what did I do?  You guessed it I took the next trade that was very similar, but again didn't pass my filter test, and sure enough this one was a loss.  Fortunately I had a valid entry about 10 minutes later which erased this loss.

So take these 2 bad entries out and I finish up on the day maybe $50 or so.  Not great but at least a profit nonetheless. And honestly there were so few opps today, I'm not sure the old me would've returned a profit today either. 

Tomorrow I need to put it all together.  Focus from market open to close.  Concentrate on nailing a few good setups, no marginal trades. 

Monday Wrapup (1/25) - $188 loss

While I finished the day in the red I generally felt good about today's trading.  Midway thru the day I was 1 for 7 and down almost $500 trading off a 1000 tick chart.  At this point I switched to a 2500 tick chart and promptly nailed a pullback setup.  Overall on the day I finished 2 for 7 with two nice wins and many small losses.

As I try to adapt to the changing market, I need to find a balance between closing a lifeless trade and letting the trade work.  On several occasions today I closed a trade for a small loss only to have the trade quickly reverse back in the original direction. Had I held the trade my results today would've been much better.


Tomorrow I'm going to start out with a 2500 tick chart and only move to a faster chart if the market action is fast.

Feeling positive overall about the rest of the week's trading.  Will be nice to get that first daily profit back on the board.  Seems like I went for a month or so without one losing day, but now I cannot buy a profit.

Reflections to Start the New Trading Week

After some further reflection this weekend, it's clear I've got to tweak my setups to meld with the current market environment.  Would've been nice to have made these adjustments two weeks ago, but I guess now's better than later.

For starters I've been taking way too many trades as the market action has intensified.  So I'll be adding a moving avg filter and stochs to my charts to help me screen trades.  I'm usually more of a price action trader, not relying on technical indicators, but when things start moving fast, technical indicators help provide a nice visual representation of what's going on.  Sure I might miss a solid trade here and there, but I'll also miss some losses too.

And I'll be limiting myself to half my usual size until I can string together several solid days and feel comfortable with my trading.  

Eager to get the week started.

Jan 22nd Weekly Recap - $2,589 loss

Lost $2,589 over 4 trading days.  44.5% winners avg gain of $156.25 and avg loss of $321.75.  222 contracts traded which is sure sign of overtrading. 

Lots of works to do for next week.

Friday Wrapup (1/22) - $988 loss

6:30AM
It's early in the day and I'm already frustrated.  Just entered a decent short pullback setup just after 6AM.  Clean entry and after 1 tick heat price moved in my favor and hit my first 2 tgts.  Moved my stop down and sure enough we temporarily reverse stopping me out of the trade for a $12 profit.  Moments later we reverse yet again and would have easily hit all of my targets. So instead of $450 to start the day, all I have is $12.  Wanted to keep my stop close with GE earnings on the slate.  But the market confirmed that it was too tight.  Woulda coulda shoulda.

And the frustration continues.  I'm adding this entry so that I can be aware of my psyche right now.  Don't need any vengeance trading to say the least.  Need to remain level headed.

4:00PM
As with yesterday too many trades to break out separately.  Took 21 trades today with just 33% winners. 

No sugar coating here, I have been and remain in a funk.  I sensed the market was changing in a journal entry shortly after the new year began, but yet I just haven't made the adjustments.

My entries which have been ultra precise are now being overshot 1-2 pts consistently after entry.  So rather than 1-2 ticks of heat before a trade moves in my favor I'm now seeing $300-500 drawdown on a 6 contract trade.  And when this happens I immediately turn on the risk mgmt hat causing me to exit many trades early that ultimately go on to be nice winners.  Instead I'm left with a minimal loss of say $50, but this adds up quite fast when you are talking 20 trades a day.

The key element here is that I've made significant money in the past when volatility was high and I can do it again.  But I need to spend the weekend reviewing my setups and making tweaks to account for the new market regime.  And I need to have better trade selection too.  Right now I'm clearly over trading.

Looking forward to getting some rest this weekend.

Thursday Wrapup (1/21) - $938 loss

8:30AM
No pre-market trades thus far.  Slept in late this morning after watching my beloved Wolfpack lay it to the Dukies.  Didn't miss much from the looks of things.

Had a clear countertrend setup after the GS earnings release, but didn't take the trade because the risk:reward ratio didn't make sense.  I usually like to enter these CT trades with a 1 pt risk at most.  Would've needed 2-2.5 pts on this trade, so I passed.

Let's get this day off to a good start.  Don't force things - take only what the market is willing to give. And above else, manage risk.

12:00PM
Lots of trades this morning, 6 total so far.  First 3 were losers and I dug myself an early $450 hole.  Came back strong with the next 3 generating $563, and was up $112.  And my last trade was a $313 loser.

That last trade was a pullback setup off the 3 min chart.  Felt the entry was solid, but the trade went against me from the start and I had no desire to stay on for the ride.  After a quick 2.5 pt drawdown, I got out onthe first mini pullback.  Should also note that I only traded 1/2 size with this trade. because the risk was a bit greater than my norm setup.  Good idea!

Even though my results thus far are in the red, I've managed risk very well.  Case in point, I took a long CT at 10:30AM where we had a clear vol spike on the 3 min chart.  Had I not kept a tight stop, I would've lost a boat load as price continued its steep descent.  And I've also stayed away from trying to catch a falling knife. 

Sure I'm down, but the good news is that I'm only a trade away from profitability.  Let's see what the afternoon session brings.


4:00PM
Clearly way too much trading after noon.  All total there were 10 trades, 8 of which were shorts, taken over this 4 hr period.  There were CTs and pullbacks taken and it didn't matter on the setup or direction as only 3 of the 10 were profitable. 

As I look back at the trades I placed I was clearly caught up in the euphoria. But honestly out of all the trades I placed today, maybe just 1 or 2 were questionable entries.   The trouble is the market is changing and I remain a step slow after being lulled to sleep over the past few months with volatility at low levels. And still finding myself a bit gunshy after the last week or so of trading.

I know I'll snap out of this funk soon enough.  Just need to concentrate harder and manage my risk. 

Wednesday Wrapup (1/20) - $100 loss

10:30AM
Just one trade so far in the young day.  This was a countertrend long @ 7:15 right after the B of A earnings release.  There was a clear volume spike which usually indicates a temp bottom.  I didn't take the first entry, but instead waited for the 2nd chance opp on the 1st pullback.  Worked out well even though it took a while to develop. Scaled out of the trade for a $250 profit.  Closed the last 2 lots early when momentum seemed to wain, and didn't want to risk the profits with WFC still left to report.  At the end of the day I left about $100 on the table with where my last 2 tgts were positioned. 

I've also missed two more excellent CT setups.  The first was a short setup after the WFC release.  Perfect setup with little to no heat.  And then a long CT setup at around 9:48AM on a clear vol spike following a push lower.  Both of these were picture perfect setups.  Missed the first while I was in the shower, and the second because I stepped away from the computer for a few mins.  Ugg.

4:00PM
Another day not much has changed.  Actually that's not entirely true.  Aside from one bonehead trade, a long CT setup, taken at 11:00AM where I lost $450 I didn't trade horribly today. 

Started the day 3 for 3 and up $487.  Then I took a long after a nice volume spike at 11AM, but didn't manage my risk well and choked into the collapse.  And of course a few mins later we were back up near my original entry.  Nice job, not!

Last 3 trades of the day essentially lost $138 as I couldn't get into any kind of rhythm. 

Despite losing $100 on the day, I feel like I can build from today's activity.  Need to re-focus and come into tomorrow ready to rock n' roll.  And stay out of trouble in the pre-market.

Wednesday Pre-Market Thoughts (1/20)

Today my goal is to focus on my two core setups (pullbacks and countertrend scalps), manage my risk well, and at the end of the day if I'm profitable great.  In looking back at my records over the past few weeks, I've been much too sloppy.  Taking setups that were very marginal.  I had been on such an impressive run after Thanksgiving, that I got a bit cocky.  I've been taking marginal setups with the thought that I could always exit for small loss, worst case.  At this point in my trading I need more structure to right this ship. 

Oh yeah, and today at least I know that B of A and Wells Fargo are due to report earnings before the bell.  Major brainfart yesterday with C.  With this in mind, I'll be limiting my pre-market trading until we get thru the crux of earnings season.

Tuesday Wrapup (1/19) - $562 loss

4:00PM
Pretty much sat on the sidelines for the better part of the day as I got off to a horrid start and knew I was far from sharp today.

My first trade of the day was decent enough.  It was a short pullback taken at 5:45AM that I traded at half-size.  Managed to scale out for a $188 gain over 30 mins or so.  Took maybe 1 tick heat.

Next trade was the dummy move.  Opened a full position short at 8:20AM right before Citigroup released their qtrly earnings.  Sure I checked the econ calendar, but this is earnings season dummy! And of course right after the release price gapped higher and never looked back.  I had my worst case stop in place that I talked about last week, and while it came close to getting filled ultimately I scaled out for a $750 loss.  Not only did I enter the trade before a market moving earnings release, I didn't manage the trade risk well to start with.  After my entry the trade had broke down ever so slightly and I should've moved my stop down just above the swing high pt.  Would've lost at most $150 or so had I managed the trade right.

Definitely in a funk right now.  Where everything was so clear only a few weeks ago, the lights have been dimmed quite a bit.  I know I'll snap out of this soon enough, so I just need to keep trudging along limiting my losses until things become clearer.

Jan 15th Weekly Recap - $2,973 loss

Yeah this week was ugly no matter how I skin it.  Of course with a manageable loss on Tuesday I would've finished at worst flat on the week.

Traded 168 contracts this week for avg loss of $19 per contract.  47% winners.

This may sound simple, but one of the rules I'll be implementing going forward is a hard stop (that I can move no matter what!!) which limits my losses on those days that get out of hand.  Looking back at my trading records over the last 6 mos, I've had 2 days like Tuesday where I've had outsized losses.  On these days I need to cap my losses at an amount that's easily recoverable within say 2 days.  99.9% of the time these stops will never come close to being filled.  But on the other 0.1% of the time, they'll save my quite a bit of cash. 

A lot of trading is realizing how old school wisdom applies to your own trading.  You can read about these things all you want, but until one truly understands how they apply to their own trading, they're useless.

Friday Wrapup (1/15) - $415 gain

10:00 AM
Fairly active pre-market session today as we had some decent ranges before and after earnings reports. I placed 4 trades in total.   First trade was an easy short pullback taken at 5:48AM.  After a 1 tick drawdown, price fell and easily hit my targets for a $213 gain.

Followed that up that with 2 more short pullbacks that went nowhere, one at 6:37AM and another at 7:18AM.  The second one was a bad entry and I suffered about 6 ticks of drawdown before closing the trade on the first pullback for a $12 loss.

Fourth trade was taken after the econ reports at 8:44AM.  Solid entry with just 1 tick heat, but left much on the table profit wise.  Managed to take just $128 of profit after a max run-up of $350.  Market showed signs of reversing and I didn't waste any time closing the last few lots.

Up $315 on 2 for 4 trading to start the day.

4:00 PM

Pretty much sat on the sidelines after 10AM, as the market was confined within a tight range after the initial move lower.  Not unexpected on options expiration day.

Took a short pullback at 10:45 that went nowhere.  After a few ticks of heat, I closed the trade for a $50 loss 10 minutes after entry.

Another short pullback @ 12:51PM that also went nowhere that I closed for a $25 profit. 

And finally my last trade of the day was a countertrend short off the last pop higher at 3:32PM.  Was a terrific entry looking back, but I left quite a bit of profit on the table.  Only managed a $125 profit after being up as much as $300.  Still it was nice to close the long weekend with a win.

Finished the day up $415 on 4 for 7 trading. 

Thursday Wrapup (1/14) - $288 gain

1:00PM
Not much happening so far today.  Being very conservative with my entries and trading half size.

Taken 3 trades so far this morning.  First was a short pullback after the initial push lower falling the 8:30 econ report.  After a 2 tick drawdown, the trade hit all of my targets relatively painlessly.  It was nice to book a profit again to take the edge off a bit.  So I started the day with a $225 profit.

Next 2 trades pretty much treaded water on.  Took a long pullback at 10:19 that went no where and I exited after 6 mins for a $12.50 gain.  And the last trade was a bit of a questionable countertrend entry as there wasn't much of a volume spike to support the entry.  Anyhow trade pretty much went against me from the start, but I remained patient and got out for a $62.50 loss after being down as much as $225.

So I'm up $175 on 2 for 3 trading heading into the afternoon.  Just need to stay patient and re-find that tunnel vision I had before the holidays.

3:50PM
Took 4 short countertrends from 2PM till now with the first two essentially breaking even, and the last two producing a profit for $138.  

Left about $200 on the last two as I was a bit aggressive on my target orders thinking we'd see a deeper pullback into the close.  My first target was hit on both setups, and price came within a tick of my targets before reversing and I ultimately closed the trade back near my original entry. 


Sure it's not stellar by any means, and at this rate it'll take me a good two weeks just to earn back what I lost yesterday.  Ouch.  But nonetheless, it's nice to be back in profit column. 

Planning to continue trading at half size for at least a few more days till I feel like I've got the hang of the market action again.  On a side note, maybe next time I'm seeing the market clearly I should double my size LOL!

Wednesday Wrapup (1/13/10) - $3,788 Loss

4:00 PM
Wow where does one even find the words.  I'm embarrassed to write this post, but I suppose that's the point. Yes, that's not a misprint, I lost $3800 today.  Regardless of one's account balance that's a big number, about half of what I expect to make in an average month.

I've had these days before, and I'm sure this won't be the last.  In a game of seconds one bad decision is all that separates a trader from huge wins or losses.  And today I just wasn't sharp enough.  Even last night I sensed that I might need to scale back until I got a handle on the current market action.

As for the day's events my first 3 trades were pretty much a wash.  Lost on the first two countertrend long setups, but gained all that back on the third.  Note that these were all re-entries of the same setup as I figured we'd bounce off the lows.  Turns out I was right, but only captured a small part of the move.

Where I dug my grave was on a countertrend short setup at 11:13AM.  After a few minutes it was evident that the trade was going no where so I started orders to exit the trade at a decent price (which at the time may have been a minimal loss of say $100).  Got filled on my first limit order, and then the big trade hit.  Sure everyone saw it on their charts.  200K + contracts traded hands and the market shot higher with me short.  What's worse is that I added to the trade higher like an idiot thinking that a top had formed after that huge volume spike. Looking back it was a decent CT setup as my 1st tgt was hit easily, but I was jaded on my risk management due to have an existing short position on. From there I was pretty much was a deer in the headlights.  I rode the trend up all day long still firmly believing we would reverse.  And in the back of my head I knew that I was relying on hope, but was paralyzed.

I'm only thankful the market reversed slightly near the EOD because it could've and should've been much worse.  I'll return tomorrow trading 1/2 size and will continue to do so until I have a good feeling of the market structure. Let's hope this is the most embarassing post I ever have to write in this blog.

Tuesday Wrapup (1/12) - $388 loss

11:30AM
Off to a decent start today.  Woke up early and was greeted with a nice pullback setup around 5:45AM after price had printed a new overnight low.  Took an initial short entry with half size and added another half once the prior bar low was taken out on the 1000 tick chart.  After my second entry I took 3 ticks of heat as price quickly reversed, but then just as quickly it reversed again and easily hit all my targets.  Nice $462 gain to start the day.

Next trade was also a short pullback at 10:26AM though the setup was not nearly as clean.  Trade pretty much went against me from the start rising as much as 4 ticks from my entry.  As such I scaled out of the trade on the first mini-pullback for a $125 loss which I was quite happy with.  So I'm 1 for 2 on the day with a $337 gain to show for my efforts.

On another note it was nice to see some early volatility, but it's been so long since we've had any I honestly feel a step slow.  Need to remain focused.

4:00PM
Totally out of sync with the markets this afternoon.  After lunch I placed 5 trades, the first 3 of which were long countertrends and the last 2 short pullbacks.  Early on I kept thinking we were going to bounce pretty hard, but it never materialized. 

As I look back at these trades, the first 2 taken around 12:30 were definitely valid setups.  The first countertrend I took I got cold feet after about 3 mins when it went no where.  Exited at breakeven which was a good call.  Then a few mins later after we had re-tested the prior low, I re-entered on the first break higher.  But the market quickly reversed taking me with it.  After a 5 tick drawdown I closed the trade for a $275 loss.  About a half hour later around 1PM we had nice vol spike on the 3 min chart, and it appeared we'd bounce.  But I didn't even manage 1 tick profit before this one too turned lower.  Managed to scaled out of this one for a $125 loss after a 4 tick drawdown.  The next trade just after 2PM was also valid.  We had spiked higher on a nice vol spike and I waited until the 2nd chance opp to enter.  Trade initially moved in my favor hitting my first tgt but again reversed and I chose to get out managing just a $25 profit. 

And finally the last trade of the day was easily my worst.  Sold the first pullback following a driver lower heading into the final hour.  But instead of reversing the market shoot higher.  Didn't panic despite having an 8 tick drawdown, remained calm and exited on first mini pullback.  Exited the trade for a $350 loss which I was pleased with overall.  Could've been much worse.

All in all I ended the day $388 in the red with essentially 1 for 5 trading.  I have to feel good about minimizing my damage on a day like today where nothing was going my way (except for the 1st trade of the day). 

On another note, if I string together one more day like today I think I'll cut my position size by half while I trade myself out of this temp funk.  Let's hope today is much more fruitful.  In the back of my mind, I'm still expecting a trend day down at some point, but I've got to trade what I see, not what I think. 

Monday Wrapup (1/11) - $500 gain

1:00PM
Not much happening so far today.  My hopes for a trend day down were quickly squashed about 30-45 mins after the opening when downside momentum stalled.

Up $700 thus far ont he day on 2 for 2 trading.  First trade was a countertrend short at 10:53AM right after ES peaked it's ahead above the prior swing high on a volume spike.  Proceeded to scale out over the next 14 mins for a $425 profit.  Took maybe 1 tick heat at the start.  Doesn't get much better than that.

Next trade was a short pullback at 12:01PM that I had to drill down to the 10 min chart to see.  Again took 1 tick of heat.  Took roughly 15 mins for my first tgt to get hit that's how slow things were moving.  The whole time I was thinking about closing the trade, but I never felt in danger.  So I held on.  Finally after about 30 mins downside momentum picked up, but seemed to stall about 2 ticks above my 2nd tgt. Note that I had wider tgts on this one since I was trading off 10 min chart and the pullback was larger than my normal setups.  When I sensed bid sizes picking up I decided it was time to book my profits.  Closed the trade for a $275 gain about 2 minutes before a move down to a new LOD.  Ugg what timing.  Left at least $250 on the table with this one.  But it could've just as easily went the other way too.

Any how happy to be up $700 on a slow day thus far.  Let's see what happens this afternoon.  Would be nice to break the $1000 profit level. 

4:00PM
Good morning and a horrid afternoon.  From 2PM thru the close, I kept trying to short the market.  Picking tops, which everyone knows is a loser's game.  And maybe only one was a valid countertrend setup with a decent volume spike.

In all I took 5 trades from 2PM, all short countertrends.  Sloppy to say the least.  It's a small miracle I only lost $200 combined.  There was certainly no skill involved here.  If I trade like this again I'll lose my pants.

Jan 8th Weekly Recap - $1152 gain

Well aside from the last 15 mins of today's action, I had a pretty good week considering.  It's amazing that the S&P was up almost 3% on the week, yet I only had 1 short trade and still made money.  And if you take away this afternoon's brain fart and Tuesday afternoon's back to back dummy trades, I would've been above $2000 for the week. 

Overall I made $1152 on 40% winners, $249 avg gain and $181 avg loss. 168 roundturns puts my avg profit per contract traded at $7.  Not great. 

Friday Wrapup (1/8) - $837 loss

9:30AM
Saw a couple of countertrend setups after the NFP report but didn't have the balls to enter.  Don't need to prove anything here.  Besides at best I might have broke even on all the trades.

Entered a short pullback trade @ 8:48AM starting with half-size (because risk wasn't well defined) and added another half 3 ticks higher when momentum seemed to stall.  This trade pretty much went against me from the start.  At the worst I was down 6 ticks on the trade and choose to scale out on first mini-retrace.  Ended up losing $262, which honestly was about $150 more than it should've been.  Got spooked a bit on the last 2 lots and closed when prices shot higher.  Still I can easily recover from such a small loss.  Much better than a $600 loss or worse.  Now let's get in gear here.

1:00PM
Very slow day, which is surprising considering the recent range consolidation.  I was certain we'd see range expansion today after the NFP release.  Guess there's still time.

Just one trade since this morning which was a bit forced.  Entered telling myself I needed to get in and out fast and failed to follow thru on my plan.  The trade was a short pullback at 11:45.  My first tgt was hit fairly easily, and I was up at most about $175 on the trade before the market turned sideways.  So I held the trade for the next hour or so and ended up exiting for a $50 loss.  Should've closed the trade much sooner for no worse than a $50 profit.  Down $312.50, but still plenty of time left. 

1:45PM
Probably just passed on best trade of the day, a CT short that I didn't think would go anywhere.  Thought we'd see another push to a new HOD since we were only a few ticks off the high.

4:00PM
Guess I was too focused on generating a profit.  "Found" a countertrend setup at 3:45 that I liked.  Thought this was a shakeout move before heading lower, but guessed wrong.  And what's worse I added a second position on another CT setup while I still had 2/3rds of the prior setup on.  Wow.  This could've been much worse, but I tried not to panic and puke into this move.  Managed to exit the 1st trade for a $400 loss and the 2nd for $125.  Under the circumstances I probably did the best I could.  But I should've have been in this trade to start with. 

So I finished a crappy day 0 for 4 and a pleasant $837 loss.  Screw me I hate going into the weekend like this.

Thursday Wrapup (1/7) - $601 gain

7:15AM
Off to a solid start to begin the day.  Well if I had just woke about an hour earlier I'd be in a much better position right now as there was a nice short pullback available right around 4:30AM EST.

Any how 1 for 1 to start the young day.  When I first checked my screen at 5:30, I saw another short pullback opp that I tried to get filled in without luck.  So I cancelled the order and studied the charts a bit more.  Upon closer inspection I realized that the pullback I was attempting to trade was really just part of a countertrend setup.  So I changed hats and looked for a long entry off this pullback.  Finally entered my first long of the week at 6:03AM.  Entered in two parts because the initial risk was a bit more than I usually like.  Added 2nd half a few ticks lower.  After a 2 tick drawdown the market moved nicely higher and I scaled out over 45 mins for a $300 profit.  With yesterday's first trade going through my brain I wanted to grab my profits while available, so I didn't waste anytime exiting the last few lots once it was clear momentum had stalled.  Only left 1-2 ticks on the table so very pleased with this trade overall.

Here's to hoping today will turn into a $1500-2000 day. Haven't had many of these lately.

10:45AM
Sold that first pullback at 10:09 treading very carefully.  Started w/ half size and waited for a break lower on 3 min chart to add.  Managed to close 1 contract for a profit before we broke higher.  Didn't want to get stuck so I scaled out quickly for a $100 loss.  Nice sitting on the sidelines while all the other shorts got stuck.  Could've easily been me.  Up $200 on the day now.


1:00PM
Not much going since last update. I've taken 3 trades all CT shorts, 2 of which I exited 5 mins later at breakeven and first one a loss of $87.  The first trade moved against me fairly sharply after entry and it was difficult to remain calm.  After a 5 tick drawdown I managed to get out for a minimal loss.  Questioned myself on whether I was exiting too early, but I made the right decision. The other 2 just went no where after entry and rather than relying on hope I choose to exit.  Very liberating to admit I was wrong and get the hell out. Note to self, do this more often!

Missed a nice CT setup at just after 12:30.  To get entry on this one, one needed to anticipate the break because she was off to the races too fast otherwise. Missed the 2nd chance entry on the same trade, just not on my game today.  See chart below for a picture of this perfect CT setup.

2:45PM
Just passed on a CT setup after an initial volume spike higher on the 3 min chart.  Think I'll play the 2nd entry here. Trend looks too strong to not quickly re-test the high again.

3:15PM
Completed the most beautiful trade I've had in a while just a few mins ago.  After that large spike up, I looked to enter on the first mini-pullback.  Got my entry and after 2 ticks of heat we had a waterfall decline.  Scaled out for a $500 profit with my last 2 tgts a bit wider than normal.  Thought about holding onto that last 1/3, but convinceed myself otherwise.  Good thing too. 

After this trade close I started looking for a short entry on the ensuing pullback.  Started a position at 1/2 size, but closed 5 mins later when there was no follow-thru.  Lost 1 tick of $37.50. Sitting up $576 on the day right now thanks to the last trade.

My mistake with this last series was not recognizing the countertrend long setup on the push down.  I was so caught up in my last trade, that I complete missed the obvious trade.  Would've made another easy 2 pts on the move back up with little to no heat.  Got to remain focused and not get too excited with my wins the reverse with my losses!

4:00PM
Well finished up with a couple of crap trades on 1/2 size volume.  Tried to re-enter on that pullback trade twice, and ended up losing $87 on these two.  Did a nice job of getting out of dodge once it was readily apparent the market wasn't going lower.

Last trade was a countertrend setup off the HOD taken at 3:53PM that went basically nowhere.  Took one tick heat and had a max profit of $100.  Closed trade for a $75 profit at EOD.

Well I didn't get the day I wanted.  But one thing is for sure, I had multiple chances to screw up.  And each time I made the right decision.  Not getting caught in that early morning bear trap.  Exiting at breakeven when my positons were lifeless, not leaving things to hope.  This is certainly something to build off. 

In all 9 trades today, 3 winners (avg gain of $292), 4 losers (avg loss of $69), and 2 scratches. 

Expecting some more fireworks tomorrow after the NFP release.  Need to get a good night's rest.

Wednesday Wrapup (1/5/10) - $750 gain

12:30PM
Three trades so far today, all shorts.

First trade of the day was taken right before 8AM on a pullback off the 1000 tick chart.  There was about 25 mins before the 8:15 econ release, and my thinking was that hopefully my 1st tgt would at least be hit before the news.  Didn't work out like that, I ended up holding thru the news.  This wasn't a major release so I was slightly more comfortable knowing that, but I still had a bit of an uneasy feeling.  Don't want to gain/lose on a coin flip any longer, because I know that's a loser's game.  Right or wrong I kept the trade on, and right after the news my 1st tgt was hit and price quickly stalled just 1 tick above my 2nd tgt.  I sensed we might reverse but didn't act on my intution and up we went.  Ended up closing the trade for a $250 loss after being up the same.  Should've gotten at least $200 on this one had I been quicker on my feet.

Saw a decent countertrend short setup around 9:45 that I didn't take.  That one would've netted 2-3 pts at least very easily.  Usually don't like trading so close to the open since it's hard to read the price action.

Next two trades were countertrends.  First was taken at 10:17 on what was essentially a 3rd push to a new HOD.  Could've taken the 2 prior setups and made maybe $100 on each one, but I didn't want to fall into a trap.  After a 2 tick drawdown price fell and my first tgt was easily hit.  Then we pulled back and I sensed an opp to add to my position once the prior bar's low was broken in the mini-pullback.  Got that opp 12 mins later and added another full-size position.  My rationale was to treat these as two separate trades each with its own targets and stoplosses.  Worked out very favorably as I scaled out of both over the next 15 mins for profits of $725 with just 2 ticks of heat on the first entry and 1 tick on the second.

So I'm up $475 on the day on 2 for 3 trading.  Let's not have a repeat of yesterday please.

3:45PM
Done for the day.  Two more trades this afternoon.  


First was an attempted short pullback at 12:47.  Why I'm trading at lunch? Eerily similar setup as yesterday, a nice pullback during the lunch hour, but no follow thru to the downside.  This time I was prepared for my own stupidity though and scaled out for a minimum loss of $100 on the trade.  Did freak out for a sec though when price jumped like a pt in 2 seconds.  But kept calm and waited for my exit opp.  


Next trade was a countertrend setup off the 1000 tick chart at 2:45.  We had a huge vol spike on the 3 min chart and I knew the HOD had been put in.  I missed the first entry so I started a 1/2 position on the first minor pullback.  Entry pt wasn't optimal, but I added to the position a few ticks higher.  Took maybe a 2 tick drawdown before the market headed lower. Scaled out of 1/2 the position over the next 30 mins or so and found myself wanting to get greedy on the last 1/2 even though the market was telling me to get out (always listen to the market!).  Sure enough that greed almost bit me in the ass.  Price rallied back up to my entry point but I remained calm knowing that I had at least secured a breakeven trade.  So my only risk was the profit on the table.  Thankfully the market didn't go any higher and i scaled out of the last 3rd over the ensuing 15 mins on the drive lower and made $375 on this last trade.


So finished the day up $750 despite my best efforts.

Tuesday Wrapup (1/5) - $413 gain

12:00PM
Certainly not much to complain about thus far.  Three trades thus far, all countertrend short scalps, all winners with gains totalling an even $1000.  And this comes despite my missing the best trade of the day because I turned my head away from the screen for like 10 secs.  That was a countertrend long at 10AM after a big vol spike down left the shorts hanging.  Not only did I miss the first entry, but I missed the follow-up as well.

First trade was a countertrend short taken just after 8AM EST.  Didn't wait for a confirmation on the 1000 tick chart, and took my entry off the 3 min chart.  Figured the worst I'd do was get out a breakeven.  There was a clear vol spike after the upward move a few mins earlier.  Didn't waste time exiting and after just 1 tick of heat, I scaled out for a $300 over the next 15 mins.


Next trade was even better.  Another CT short taken at 10:45.  Not 1 tick of heat and I scaled out in 5 mins for $350.  Found myself thinking smartly just to get out of this trade and try to nail the first pullback which I did :). 


At 11:13 I took another short off the first mini-pullback of the above setup.  Again no heat and I scaled out over 12 mins for a $400 gain.  Found myself wanting to hold at least a few lots of this one a bit longer than we were setup for a cascading selloff now that the bulls were trapped higher.  But corrected my thoughts and stuck to my usual trading style. 


Nice start to the day.  Let's keep the momentum going this afternoon.  And don't do anything stupid!


4:00PM
Wow today was certainly a tale of two halves.  Should've shut down my machine at lunch.  Ugg.

Here's a summary of my afternoon trades:

Pullback short taken at 12:13 off the 3 min chart.  Another beautiful entry with 1 tick of heat and I scaled out over the next 45 mins for a $363 profit.  At this point I'm up almost $1400 on the day and living large. The things go down hill.

My next trade came at 2:30PM.  Took a pullback short off the 1000 tick chart.  Solid setup, but the trade pretty much went against me from the start.  So I put on my risk mgmt hat and started peeling off contracts.  Whittled down 6 short contracts to 2, but clearly didn't try hard enough on the last 2 contracts.  Took just a $75 loss on 4 contracts and a $425 loss on the remaining 2.  Ouch.  Closed at the EOD. 

Just after 3PM, I took a countertrend short that once again did me in from the start.  And again I whittled the position down to 4 contracts with a minimal loss of $50 or so.  Had multiple chances to get out on last 2 lots at breakeven, but didn't pull the trigger.  Looking at the 5 min chart from 2PM on not one freaking bar penetrated the low of the prior bar.  I kept anticipating a decent size pullback that never happened.  Closed this at the EOD for a $375 loss.  $50 loss on 4 contracts and $325 on last 2.  Ouch.


And finally in a WTF moment, I opened a CT short at 3:55 on a second chance entry.  My thinking was that everyone who had been buying since 2:00PM would want to close their positions before the bell.  Wrong again.  At least this time I managed to lose just $75, though I'm sure it would've been worse had the market continued higher and I sat their froze in time. 


So long story short after being up almost $1400, I closed the day with a measly $413 profit.  Sure it could've been worse, but feeling like my bad habits have crept back in. Need to turn the lights off on those bad boys. But I also have to attribute some of this to the market itself.  I mean how many days does the market go straight up for 2 hrs without nary a pullback even 2 pts or so?  Not many.  Sometimes shit just doesn't go your way!

Monday Wrapup (1/4) - $225 gain

8AM
Well for starters, I took a short pullback last night about 30 mins after the open that I scaled out of for a $250 gain over the ensuing 4 hrs.  Was up as much as $375 and down as much as 3 ticks.   Seemed like the market had gotten ahead of itself at the open, but not much follow-thru.  Still nice to turn a profit on my first trade of the new year!

12PM
Even though the market has been trending higher all day I've had a hard time locating decent long setups.  My only trades thus far are 4 countertrend shorts. 

Made $250 on the first short taken at 9:48AM after a 2 tick drawdown.  Felt good about my exit too.


Next trade was taken at 10:02AM, but I closed about 30 seconds after entry.  Trade went against me 2 ticks at the start so I closed at breakeven just due to gut feel.  Turns out my gut was wrong as this trade would've made at least $250-300.  Oh well. 


Took another short at 10:32AM that pretty much went against me from the start.  After a 1.5 pt drawdown I managed to close for a $150 loss.  At various points I found myself thinking about closing this trade as it went nowhere after entry.  Of course, as I was about to exit the trade moves against me.  Did a good job of not puking into the up move and exiting on first pullback. 


And my last trade this morning was pretty much a repeat of above.  Took a short at 11:36AM.  Wasn't a great setup.  Vol spike was minimal.  Entry was on a 2nd chance opp on a pullback after first signal once prior bar's low was taken out. After being down 5 ticks, I closed the trade for a loss of $125 over a series of exits. Could've done much better with these last 2 trades. 


So basically I'm down $25 on the day not including last night's gain of $250 which I'll lump in with today's trading.


4PM
Not much going this afternoon except chop.  Finished the day up $225 including last night's gain.